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The $2.5 Billion Matchmaking Market: Why Professional Introductions Are Growing While Dating Apps Decline

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In 2023, Match Group — the parent company of Tinder, Hinge, OkCupid, and Match.com — reported a decline in paying users for the second consecutive year. Bumble, its closest competitor, saw its stock drop 80% from its 2021 peak on slowing growth numbers.

For the first time since the swipe era began, the secular growth story for dating apps has stalled.

At the same time, premium matchmaking has been growing quietly. No big press releases, no IPO, no viral app launches. Just a steady increase in the number of accomplished professionals willing to pay a human being — rather than an algorithm — to help them find a relationship.

The data tells an interesting story.

The App Market: What’s Actually Happening

Dating apps benefited enormously from a specific historical moment: the smartphone era, the normalization of online meeting, and the first generation of adults who had grown up with social media. That moment is largely over.

Pew Research’s 2023 survey found that 53% of U.S. adults say dating apps have had a mostly negative effect on dating and relationships — up significantly from previous surveys. Among people who have actively used apps for more than a year, the frustration is even more pronounced.

Match Group’s quarterly filings reveal the structural problem. Their average revenue per user has increased (they’ve raised prices), but their user count has declined. The apps are extracting more from fewer users — a pattern that typically precedes broader market contraction.

The strategic response from the major players has been to add features designed to differentiate from the basic swipe model: Hinge’s “Designed to be Deleted” campaign, Match.com’s video features, Tinder’s premium tiers. The underlying model, however, remains the same. Whether these iterations will reverse the trend is an open question.

The Premium Matchmaking Market

While mainstream apps struggle with retention, the premium matchmaking segment has expanded. Several converging factors explain why.

Demographic shift. The largest cohort of adults who adopted apps in their 20s is now in their mid-30s to early 40s. They have more disposable income, a clearer sense of what they want, and a longer track record of app disappointments. The value proposition of a professional introduction service — more expensive, but oriented toward outcomes rather than engagement — is increasingly legible to them.

Increasing professionalization of the category. Services like Three Day Rule, Selective Search, and Kelleher International have built national brands with real track records, making the category more legitimate for first-time buyers. When a colleague recommends a matchmaker the way they’d recommend a therapist, it normalizes the category.

Real scarcity of good matchmakers. Unlike apps, which can scale to millions of users through software, quality matchmaking scales with human practitioners. There’s meaningful supply constraint — particularly at the $2,500–$10,000 price point that represents the most accessible entry into professional matchmaking.

The Market Structure

The matchmaking market is unusually fragmented. At the top, ultra-premium services like Selective Search charge $25,000–$200,000 per client and operate nationally. At the bottom, informal “matchmakers” with no methodology or track record operate locally with inconsistent outcomes.

The underserved segment is the middle — accomplished professionals who would pay $2,500–$10,000 for quality introductions but don’t have access to a trusted, professionally operated service in their city. This is where the market opportunity is largest.

IBISWorld estimates the total U.S. matchmaking and dating services market at approximately $2.5 billion annually, with the premium segment (defined as services charging over $1,000) growing at a higher rate than the overall market.

Crucially, the market is geographically fragmented in ways that apps are not. Apps work nationally; matchmaking is inherently local. The relationship between a matchmaker and their community — the network of singles, the cultural knowledge, the referral relationships — can’t be replicated remotely. Every city is, in effect, a separate market.

What This Means for Franchise Operators

The combination of declining app performance, growing premium demand, and geographic fragmentation creates an unusual opportunity for operators who are well-positioned in their local communities.

Cities that previously had no professional matchmaking service have unmet demand. The professionals who have been on apps for three or four years and are ready for something different represent a customer segment with clear intent and real purchasing power — but no local option serving them.

First-mover advantage in a given metro is real and compounding. A matchmaker who establishes themselves as the credible local option in, say, Charlotte or Cincinnati builds a member pool and a referral network that becomes increasingly hard to replicate.

The window between the current app fatigue and mainstream adoption of premium matchmaking alternatives isn’t infinite. The operators who move in the next 12–18 months are positioning themselves ahead of what is likely to be a more crowded market.

The Local Match Co. is a professional matchmaking franchise based in Pittsburgh, PA. We’re selectively expanding to cities across the United States. One operator per metro area. Learn more at thelocalmatch.com.

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